College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 1, 2022: Proven computer model backing Florida, Louisville

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From 2007 to 2012, Mario Cristobal had been making his case as a college football force in Miami as the head coach at Florida International, where he won 15 total games between 2010 and 2011. After a run as an assistant at Alabama and then five years as the head coach at Oregon, he found his way back to his alma mater in Coral Gables this year. The Hurricanes had an up-and-down experience with Mark Richt under similar circumstances, but are hoping for better this time around.

Without Cristobal, the No. 11 Ducks open the season as 17-point underdogs against No. 3 Georgia in the Week 1 college football odds listed on Caesars Sportsbook. The matchup is one of the biggest on the Week 1 college football schedule, but should you choose one side or the other in your best bets? And what other spreads, totals and money lines should you be targeting over Labor Day weekend? Before locking in any Week 1 college football picks, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 college football odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for Week 1

One of the college picks the model is high on in Week 1: Florida (+2.5) covers at home against No. 7 Utah at 7 p.m. ET. Few new head coaches have generated the kind of buzz that new Gators head coach Billy Napier has in his new location. Many programs were looking to bring him in two seasons ago, but he made the decision to wait for his preferred situation in Gainesville.

Napier finished 2-2 in season-openers as the head coach of Louisiana, while Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham is 2-1 since 2010 in season-opening matchups against Power Five opponents. The Gators return this season with Anthony Richardson at quarterback, who Napier has been complementary of in camp ahead of the season. Additionally, Napier’s former running back at Louisiana, Montrell Johnson, gives him a known commodity in the Gators’ rushing attack.

Johnson finished with 838 yards and 12 touchdowns as a freshman, and the model thinks that he’ll finish with a workmanlike performance with over 60 rushing yards. Things are set up for a battle between the two sides, but the model confidently backs Florida as an underdog nearly 60% of the time in The Swamp on Saturday.

Another prediction: Louisville easily covers as a 4.5-point road favorite against Syracuse at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Cardinals are 7-1 versus ‘Cuse over their last eight meetings, with all seven victories coming by at least 22 points. Last year’s meeting was a 38-point stomping by Louisville in which quarterback Malik Cunningham accounted for five touchdowns.

Cunningham is projected to have another huge game vs. a Syracuse defense that allowed 37.7 points over its last three games of 2021. The model forecasts Cunningham to throw for over 250 yards, run for over 75 yards and account for three total touchdowns.

The Orange will have no answer for the dynamic Cunningham on defense, nor will they be able to counter on offense. Only eight FBS teams averaged fewer passing yards than Syracuse last year, so it’s not a team built to come from behind. The model predicts just that happening as Louisville is projected to win by double-digits, and thus the Cardinals (-4.5) cover in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams the model likes here.

How to make college football picks for Week 1

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup in Week 1, and it’s calling for a big favorite to go down hard in a shocking upset. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which heavy favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,600 in profit over the past six-plus seasons, and find out.